Prelim analysis

Party vote share

Seats

Turnout

Strike rate

Victory margin

Phases

2021 phases

seats covered

phase_21 n
1 29
2 30
3 32
4 44
5 45
6 43
7 36
8 35

seat share

vote share

2019 phases

seats covered

phase_19 n
1 126
2 280
3 441
4 476
5 581
6 581
7 777 
## # A tibble: 21 x 3
## # Groups:   phase_19, front_new [21]
##    phase_19 front_new    vs
##       <int> <chr>     <dbl>
##  1        1 AITC      41.3 
##  2        1 BJP       51.6 
##  3        1 LF+INC     5.45
##  4        2 AITC      34.4 
##  5        2 BJP       50.3 
##  6        2 LF+INC    12.1 
##  7        3 AITC      37.3 
##  8        3 BJP       31.9 
##  9        3 LF+INC    27.6 
## 10        4 AITC      42.5 
## # ... with 11 more rows
## # A tibble: 3 x 8
##   front_new   `1`   `2`   `3`   `4`   `5`   `6`   `7`
##   <chr>     <int> <int> <int> <int> <int> <int> <int>
## 1 AITC          2     5    19    28    29    24    57
## 2 BJP          12    15    11    25    20    32     6
## 3 LF+INC       NA    NA     6     3    NA    NA    NA

vote share

seat share

Spatial distribution

Seats won

Vote share distribution

BJP vote share

BJP’s vote share in constituencies won by following parties -

Second column indicates the vote share recieved by the party in the constituencies it has won. Second column indicates BJP’s vote share from the same set of constituencies.

2019

winner_16 mean_winner_vote_share mean_bjp_vote_share
AITC 49.03122 34.34255
BJP 50.59901 50.59901
INC 45.88758 18.86554

2016

winner_16 mean_winner_vote_share mean_bjp_vote_share
AITC 48.45957 41.23052
BJP 40.49000 53.37812
INC 48.03182 34.51909
LF 44.67375 39.69815

Women Turnout

Scraped women turnout data from west bengal sec annual reports. No success in finding female turnout for other years yet- . lmk if you know any.

AE 16

pranav’s piece on women electors

GE 19

Our analysis of women turnout and party vote shares from 1996 to last loksabha elections, revealed that AITMC is highly preferred among women voters as AITMCs vote share increases as more women turns out for voting. At the same time, left front looses its vote share as the women turnout increases. Event hough, the trend of BJP loosing votes with more women turnout is minimal in the General election, it is much stronger in the last Assembly election as shown in the fig.x scatter plot.

Reserved constiteuncies

## 
## GEN  SC  ST 
## 210  68  16

Party vote share

SC and ST seperate

SC and ST aggregate

boxplot

Vote share change

Parties vote share as a function of SC/ST population.

ST - BJP & AITC - 2016-19

SC - BJP & AITC - 2016-19

SC & ST - BJP & AITC - 2016-19

Muslims

Muslims percentage at AC level aggregated using Raphael’s booth level data.

District level distribution

Muslim percentage cat Count of AC Percentage of ACs
(0,20] 1 0.36
(20,30] 56 20.44
(30,40] 98 35.77
(40,50] 88 32.12
(50,Inf] 31 11.31

Vote share

All AE and GE elections- Post 2009

AE elections

GE elections

2019- AITC & BJP

2019 - AITC

Vote share change

Paarty vote share change from 2016 as a function of Muslim population

Vote share change - ATIC & BJP

Vote share change - ATIC & LF+AITC

Vote share change - ATIC

sub region

Count

sub_region_rv ac_count
Central Bengal 33
Hills 27
Jangalmahal 40
North Bengal 27
South-Central Bengal 60
South Bengal 107

Muslims by region

sub_region_rv mean_muslims
Central Bengal 44.79
Hills 36.10
Jangalmahal 35.86
North Bengal 51.14
South-Central Bengal 35.93
South Bengal 37.39

Constituency type

sub_region_rv GEN SC/ST
Central Bengal 27 6
Hills 10 17
Jangalmahal 24 16
North Bengal 19 8
South-Central Bengal 44 16
South Bengal 86 21

Vote share

  • it seems that south-central bengal is where BJP and AITC having a head to head competition.

Seat share

year party Central Bengal Hills Jangalmahal North Bengal South-Central Bengal South Bengal
2016 AITC 13 18 31 6 48 95
2016 BJP 0 1 1 1 0 0
2019 AITC 22 3 10 10 30 89
2019 BJP 6 24 30 13 30 18

tunrout

sub_region_rv 2016 2019
Central Bengal 83.22 81.79
Hills 83.99 81.96
Jangalmahal 85.59 83.32
North Bengal 82.71 80.20
South-Central Bengal 83.82 81.46
South Bengal 81.07 78.73

districts

## # A tibble: 8 x 4
## # Groups:   district_name.y [8]
##   district_name.y      n_ac  AITC   BJP
##   <chr>               <int> <int> <dbl>
## 1 BARDHAMAN              25    14    11
## 2 HOOGHLY                18    10     8
## 3 HOWRAH                 16    15     1
## 4 KOLKATA CORPORATION    11     8     3
## 5 NADIA                  17     6    11
## 6 NORTH 24 PARGANAS      33    21    12
## 7 PURBA MEDINIPUR        16    14     2
## 8 SOUTH 24 PARGANAS      31    31     0

South Bengal

Party vote share

Party seats

South Bengal - BJP 2019

  • New division
Region Front Number of ACs leading Number of ACs in the region % of ACs leading in the region Vote share of the front
Bengal - other AITC 75 187 40.11 40.45
Bengal - other BJP 103 187 55.08 42.46
Bengal - other LF+INC 9 187 4.81 14.40
South Bengal AITC 89 107 83.18 49.73
South Bengal BJP 18 107 16.82 37.20

List of ACs in south Bengal with vote share of the fronts

Vote share change - assumption models

South Bengal

BJP - addition

How does change in certain percentage point vote share reflects on the number of constituencies led by BJP

  • Based on the new south bengal division
Vote share added Number of ACs leading Percentage of leading ACs in south
winner 18 16.82
winner_1pc 22 20.56
winner_2pc 23 21.50
winner_3pc 27 25.23
winner_5pc 31 28.97
winner_7pc 40 37.38
winner_10pc 51 47.66

AITC -reduction

How does change in certain percentage point reduction in vote share reflects on the number of constituencies led by AITC

  • Based on the new south bengal division
Vote share reduced Number of ACs leading Percentage of leading ACs in south
winner 89 83.18
winner_1pc 85 79.44
winner_2pc 84 78.50
winner_3pc 80 74.77
winner_5pc 76 71.03
winner_7pc 66 61.68
winner_10pc 55 51.40

Pan bengal model

BJP - addition

Vote share added Number of ACs leading Percentage of leading ACs in WB
winner 121 41.16
winner_1pc 130 44.22
winner_2pc 140 47.62
winner_3pc 153 52.04
winner_5pc 162 55.10
winner_7pc 176 59.86
winner_10pc 195 66.33

AITC - reduction

Vote share reduced Number of ACs leading Percentage of leading in WB
winner 169 57.48
winner_1pc 160 54.42
winner_2pc 150 51.02
winner_3pc 137 46.60
winner_5pc 128 43.54
winner_7pc 113 38.44
winner_10pc 94 31.97

South and rest of the Bengal

BJP - addition

Vote share added Nn_ACs leading in rest of the Bengal % of leading ACs in rest of the Bengal n_ACs leading in South Bengal % of leading ACs in South Bengal
winner 103 55.08 18 16.82
winner_1pc 108 57.75 22 20.56
winner_2pc 117 62.57 23 21.50
winner_3pc 126 67.38 27 25.23
winner_5pc 131 70.05 31 28.97
winner_7pc 136 72.73 40 37.38
winner_10pc 144 77.01 51 47.66

AITC - reduction

Vote share reduced Nn_ACs leading in rest of the Bengal % of leading ACs in rest of the Bengal n_ACs leading in South Bengal % of leading ACs in South Bengal
winner 80 42.78 89 83.18
winner_1pc 75 40.11 85 79.44
winner_2pc 66 35.29 84 78.50
winner_3pc 57 30.48 80 74.77
winner_5pc 52 27.81 76 71.03
winner_7pc 47 25.13 66 61.68
winner_10pc 39 20.86 55 51.40