Models

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Document History

Original Publish Date: 16 July, 2020

Updated on: 14 May, 2021

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Regressions

UP

AE All

Summary of the AE all contestants unique data

Measure	Family	Political diversification	Minister duration(Months)	Economic diversification	Land ownership(deciles)	Elections won
Length	4281.00	4281.00	4281.00	4281.00	4281.00	4281.00
Unique-N	2.00	2.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	5.00
Mean	0.07	0.11	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00
SD	0.26	0.31	1.41	1.41	1.41	1.41
Min	0.00	0.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
Max	1.00	1.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	5.00

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Regression Results - AE All

	fit.1
Dependent Var.:	Family
Economic diversification	0.2603*** (0.0436)
Land ownership	0.1093** (0.0403)
Number of elections won	-0.1155*** (0.0321)
Political diversification	0.9139*** (0.0958)
Minister duration	0.2043*** (0.0317)
Caste_uc	0.0664 (0.1694)
Caste_yadav	0.2169 (0.2232)
Caste_non_yadav_obc	0.0340 (0.1906)
Caste_dalit	-0.0911 (0.1803)
Caste_muslim	0.3428. (0.2072)
Caste control	Yes
Fixed-Effects:	——————-
district	Yes
year	Yes
_________________________	___________________
S.E.: Clustered	by: district
Observations	4,138
Squared Cor.	0.28673
Pseudo R2	0.37250
BIC	2,142.1

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Regression Results - AE All

	fit.2
Dependent Var.:	Political diversification
Economic diversification	0.2845*** (0.0392)
Land ownership	0.0459 (0.0366)
Number of elections won	0.0129 (0.0211)
Minister duration	0.2034*** (0.0270)
Caste_uc	0.0360 (0.1325)
Caste_yadav	0.1090 (0.1895)
Caste_non_yadav_obc	0.0228 (0.1485)
Caste_dalit	-0.0275 (0.1378)
Caste_muslim	0.1180 (0.1499)
Caste control	Yes
Fixed-Effects:	————————-
district	Yes
year	Yes
________________________	_________________________
S.E.: Clustered	by: district
Observations	4,281
Squared Cor.	0.16265
Pseudo R2	0.21040
BIC	3,157.0

Elections won - AE All

	fit.3
Dependent Var.:	won_elections
Economic diversification	0.1820*** (0.0154)
Land ownership	0.1044*** (0.0150)
Political diversification	0.6902*** (0.0328)
Minister duration	0.1889*** (0.0100)
Caste_uc	0.1757** (0.0542)
Caste_yadav	0.3857*** (0.0688)
Caste_non_yadav_obc	0.2089*** (0.0618)
Caste_dalit	0.2339*** (0.0579)
Caste_muslim	0.0623 (0.0640)
(Intercept)	-2.132*** (0.0682)
post_90	0.7278*** (0.0369)
Caste control	Yes
_________________________	__________________
S.E. type	Standard
Observations	4,281
Squared Cor.	0.36844
Pseudo R2	0.18329
BIC	11,645.3

AE GE all

Summary of the AE GE all contestants unique data

Measure	Family	Political diversification	Minister duration(Months)	Economic diversification	Land ownership(Deciles)	Elections won
Length	4867.00	4867.00	4867.00	4867.00	4867.00	4867.00
Unique-N	2.00	2.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	5.00
Mean	0.07	0.03	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00
SD	0.25	0.18	1.41	1.41	1.41	1.41
Min	0.00	0.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
Max	1.00	1.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	5.00

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Regression Results - AE All

	fit.1
Dependent Var.:	Family
Economic diversification	0.2665*** (0.0347)
Land ownership	0.1193** (0.0380)
Number of elections won	-0.0671* (0.0268)
Minister duration	0.2266*** (0.0302)
Caste_uc	-0.0380 (0.1506)
Caste_yadav	0.1260 (0.2269)
Caste_non_yadav_obc	-0.1428 (0.2027)
Caste_dalit	-0.2366 (0.1654)
Caste_muslim	0.2410 (0.2111)
linkage_down	0.3556** (0.1376)
Caste control	Yes
Fixed-Effects:	——————
district	Yes
year	Yes
________________________	__________________
S.E.: Clustered	by: district
Observations	3,886
Squared Cor.	0.22486
Pseudo R2	0.30520
BIC	2,311.5

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Regression Results - AE All

	fit.2
Dependent Var.:	linkage_down
Economic diversification	0.1956*** (0.0510)
Land ownership	-0.0012 (0.0484)
Number of elections won	0.0342 (0.0348)
Minister duration	0.0631 (0.0482)
Caste_uc	0.7944* (0.3386)
Caste_yadav	0.9099* (0.3872)
Caste_non_yadav_obc	0.5274 (0.3538)
Caste_dalit	0.5699 (0.3568)
Caste_muslim	0.5215 (0.4130)
Caste control	Yes
Fixed-Effects:	——————
district	Yes
year	Yes
________________________	__________________
S.E.: Clustered	by: district
Observations	3,342
Squared Cor.	0.09867
Pseudo R2	0.21654
BIC	1,738.1

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Elections won - AE and GE All

	fit.3
Dependent Var.:	won_elections
Economic diversification	0.1681*** (0.0139)
Land ownership	0.1527*** (0.0138)
Minister duration	0.2064*** (0.0097)
Caste_uc	0.2124*** (0.0512)
Caste_yadav	0.4064*** (0.0659)
Caste_non_yadav_obc	0.2312*** (0.0580)
Caste_dalit	0.2643*** (0.0548)
Caste_muslim	0.1148. (0.0609)
(Intercept)	-2.387*** (0.0660)
linkage_down	0.3454*** (0.0515)
post_90	0.9223*** (0.0365)
Caste control	Yes
________________________	__________________
S.E. type	Standard
Observations	4,867
Squared Cor.	0.28068
Pseudo R2	0.14819
BIC	13,568.8

AE 2012 -17

Summary of the AE GE all contestants unique data

Measure	Family	Political diversification	Minister duration(Months)	Economic diversification	Land ownership(Deciles)	Elections won	Total assets	Serious crime	Turncoat	Winner	Vote share
Length	1188.00	1188.00	1188.00	1188.00	1188.00	1188.00	1188.00	1188.0	1188.00	1188.00	1188.00
Unique-N	2.00	2.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	6.00	2.0	2.00	2.00	997.00
Mean	0.17	0.18	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	0.2	0.13	0.47	33.88
SD	0.38	0.39	1.41	1.41	1.41	1.41	1.42	0.4	0.34	0.50	9.07
Min	0.00	0.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.0	0.00	0.00	14.12
Max	1.00	1.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	1.0	1.00	1.00	67.95

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Regression Results - AE 2012-17

	fit.1
Dependent Var.:	Family
Economic diversification	0.2124*** (0.0508)
Land ownership	0.0737. (0.0398)
Number of elections won	0.0617 (0.0451)
Political diversification	1.030*** (0.1291)
Minister duration	0.2231*** (0.0483)
Serious crime	-0.5158*** (0.1403)
Caste_uc	0.2601 (0.3174)
Caste_yadav	0.5640 (0.3977)
Caste_non_yadav_obc	0.4097 (0.3714)
Caste_dalit	0.3103 (0.3370)
Caste_muslim	0.7037. (0.3909)
log(total_assets)	0.0178 (0.1244)
turncoat	0.0146 (0.1983)
Caste control	Yes
Fixed-Effects:	——————-
district	Yes
year	Yes
_________________________	___________________
S.E.: Clustered	by: district
Observations	1,088
Squared Cor.	0.30777
Pseudo R2	0.30015
BIC	1,306.2

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Regression Results - AE 2012-17

	fit.2
Dependent Var.:	winner
Economic diversification	-0.0392 (0.0420)
Land ownership	0.0024 (0.0391)
Number of elections won	0.4871*** (0.0451)
Political diversification	0.1036 (0.1514)
Minister duration	-0.2242*** (0.0525)
Family	-0.1159 (0.1542)
Serious crime	-0.1087 (0.0996)
Caste_uc	0.3640. (0.1893)
Caste_yadav	-0.0785 (0.2568)
Caste_non_yadav_obc	0.2581 (0.1857)
Caste_dalit	0.0838 (0.1683)
Caste_muslim	-0.2816 (0.2061)
log(total_assets)	-0.1444 (0.0891)
turncoat	0.0780 (0.1347)
Caste control	Yes
Fixed-Effects:	——————-
district	Yes
year	Yes
_________________________	___________________
S.E.: Clustered	by: district
Observations	1,171
Squared Cor.	0.22607
Pseudo R2	0.17451
BIC	1,972.8

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Regression Results - AE 2012:17

	Dependent variable:
	Vote Share Percentage
minister_duration	-0.690***
	(0.227)
industry	-0.190
	(0.234)
land	0.380*
	(0.205)
n_elections_w	2.054***
	(0.218)
log(total_assets)	-1.231**
	(0.509)
serious_crime	0.324
	(0.613)
turncoat	0.651
	(0.678)
dynast	-0.694
	(0.640)
linkage	0.129
	(0.842)
Constituency fixed effects	Yes
Observations	1,171
R2	0.283
Adjusted R2	0.224
Residual Std. Error	7.990 (df = 1081)
Note:	p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

GE 2009:19

Summary of the GE 2009:19 contestants unique data

Measure	Family	Political diversification	Minister duration(Months)	Economic diversification	Land ownership(Deciles)	Elections won	Total assets	Serious crime	Turncoat	Winner	Vote share
Length	317.00	317.00	317.00	317.00	317.00	317.00	317.00	317.00	317.00	317.00	317.00
Unique-N	2.00	2.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	2.00	2.00	2.00	309.00
Mean	0.24	0.09	2.99	2.99	2.99	2.99	2.99	0.35	0.10	0.43	37.67
SD	0.43	0.29	1.42	1.42	1.42	1.42	1.42	0.48	0.31	0.50	11.46
Min	0.00	0.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.54
Max	1.00	1.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	64.32

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Regression Results - AE All

	fit.1
Dependent Var.:	Family
Economic diversification	0.3836* (0.1628)
Land ownership	0.1843 (0.1691)
Number of elections won	0.4028** (0.1464)
Minister duration	0.4091** (0.1491)
Serious crime	0.3533 (0.3505)
Caste_uc	0.3279 (0.9377)
Caste_yadav	-0.9182 (1.089)
Caste_non_yadav_obc	-0.2983 (0.9122)
Caste_dalit	-1.146 (0.9077)
Caste_muslim	0.1699 (0.9913)
linkage_down	1.922*** (0.5733)
log(total_assets)	0.6710. (0.3588)
turncoat	0.0527 (0.4435)
Caste control	Yes
Fixed-Effects:	—————–
pc	Yes
year	Yes
________________________	_________________
S.E.: Clustered	by: pc
Observations	235
Squared Cor.	0.41407
Pseudo R2	0.37736
BIC	587.27

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Regression Results - AE All

	fit.2
Dependent Var.:	winner
Economic diversification	-0.1731. (0.0999)
Land ownership	0.1662. (0.0982)
Number of elections won	-0.0076 (0.1044)
Minister duration	-0.1960. (0.1055)
Family	0.4521 (0.2815)
Serious crime	0.0090 (0.2176)
Caste_uc	0.1244 (0.4755)
Caste_yadav	-1.232 (0.7509)
Caste_non_yadav_obc	-0.1700 (0.5255)
Caste_dalit	0.9947* (0.4520)
Caste_muslim	-0.9752. (0.5856)
log(total_assets)	-0.1383 (0.2213)
turncoat	0.8996* (0.4222)
linkage_down	-0.4671 (0.3800)
Caste control	Yes
Fixed-Effects:	—————–
pc	Yes
year	Yes
________________________	_________________
S.E.: Clustered	by: pc
Observations	310
Squared Cor.	0.21042
Pseudo R2	0.17326
BIC	889.81

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Regression Results - GE 2009:19

	Dependent variable:
	Dynast
minister_duration	-0.037
	(0.610)
industry	-0.375
	(0.643)
land	0.578
	(0.579)
n_elections_w	-0.145
	(0.667)
log(total_assets)	-0.476
	(1.001)
serious_crime	1.115
	(1.135)
turncoat	0.952
	(1.904)
dynast	3.151**
	(1.577)
linkage_down	0.095
	(2.105)
Constituency fixed effects	Yes
Observations	317
R2	0.522
Adjusted R2	0.314
Residual Std. Error	9.489 (df = 220)
Note:	p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

AE-GE (2009:19)

Summary of the AE-GE 2009:19 contestants unique data

Measure	Family	Political diversification	Minister duration(Months)	Economic diversification	Land ownership(Deciles)	Elections won	Total assets	Serious crime	Turncoat	Winner	Vote share
Length	1388.00	1388.00	1388.00	1388.00	1388.00	1388.00	1388	1388.00	1388.00	1388.00	1388.00
Unique-N	2.00	2.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	1388	15.00	2.00	2.00	1162.00
Mean	0.17	0.09	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	64562634	0.76	0.13	0.46	34.87
SD	0.37	0.28	1.41	1.41	1.41	1.41	236115772	1.96	0.33	0.50	9.81
Min	0.00	0.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	128000	0.00	0.00	0.00	14.12
Max	1.00	1.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	6321566925	23.00	1.00	1.00	67.95

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Regression Results - AE All

	fit.1
Dependent Var.:	Family
Economic diversification	0.2667*** (0.0800)
Land ownership	0.1990* (0.0820)
Number of elections won	0.3840*** (0.0862)
Minister duration	0.3552** (0.1114)
Caste_uc	0.2184 (0.4318)
Caste_yadav	0.1224 (0.5712)
Caste_non_yadav_obc	0.2081 (0.4538)
Caste_dalit	-0.1691 (0.5715)
Caste_muslim	0.8494. (0.5044)
linkage_down	0.4657 (0.2997)
log(total_assets)	0.1385. (0.0788)
serious_crime	0.0319 (0.0836)
non_serious_crime	-0.0219 (0.0486)
turncoat	0.1586 (0.2987)
Caste control	Yes
Fixed-Effects:	——————
constituency	Yes
year	Yes
________________________	__________________
S.E.: Clustered	by: constituency
Observations	693
Squared Cor.	0.46020
Pseudo R2	0.40540
BIC	1,848.5

Regression Results - AE All

	fit.3
Dependent Var.:	Political diversification
Economic diversification	0.1508* (0.0612)
Land ownership	0.1277. (0.0693)
Number of elections won	0.3493*** (0.0692)
Minister duration	0.2710** (0.0926)
Caste_uc	0.4742 (0.3367)
Caste_yadav	0.8862* (0.4166)
Caste_non_yadav_obc	0.1563 (0.3641)
Caste_dalit	0.0438 (0.4044)
Caste_muslim	0.4451 (0.4061)
log(total_assets)	0.0820 (0.0601)
serious_crime	0.0341 (0.0276)
turncoat	0.0929 (0.2465)
Caste control	Yes
Fixed-Effects:	————————-
constituency	Yes
year	Yes
________________________	_________________________
S.E.: Clustered	by: constituency
Observations	743
Squared Cor.	0.35754
Pseudo R2	0.30586
BIC	2,063.6

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Regression Results - AE GE 2009:19

	Dependent variable:
	Vote Share Percentage
caste_uc	1.487
	(0.880)
caste_yadav	-1.549
	(1.263)
caste_non_yadav_obc	0.973
	(0.714)
caste_dalit	1.401
	(1.550)
caste_muslim	-3.831*
	(1.597)
minister_duration	0.205
	(0.131)
industry	0.222
	(0.187)
land	0.493
	(0.324)
n_elections_w	-0.196
	(0.141)
log(total_assets)	-0.178
	(0.165)
serious_crime	0.331***
	(0.061)
turncoat	0.601
	(0.630)
dynast	0.420
	(1.180)
linkage_down	-0.570
	(0.330)
election_typeGE
	(0.000)
Observations	1,388
R2	0.388
Adjusted R2	0.101
Residual Std. Error	9.295 (df = 945)
Note:	p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01

Night lights

Regression Results - UP Night lights - Dynast 2

	Dependent variable:
	term_growth
dyn_cum_2	-21.691
	(16.057)
sexM	4.282
	(13.666)
constituency_typeSC	-14.061
	(15.087)
turnout_percentage	2.981*
	(1.666)
enop	9.282
	(7.878)
term_duration	5.618
	(6.339)
incumbent	-48.011
	(49.729)
margin_percentage	-0.446
	(1.011)
no_terms	12.475
	(16.810)
Year fixed effects	Yes
District fixed effects	Yes
SE clustering	District level
Observations	1,572
R2	0.080
Adjusted R2	0.026
Residual Std. Error	347.419 (df = 1485)
Note:	p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01