Master file Analysis

0.0.0.1 Document History

Original Publish Date: 10 June, 2020

Updated on: 11:06 AM – 04 June, 2021

In this project we are using a novel dataset compiled by Rahul Verma. This dataset covers the candidates contested in the different levels of elections held from 1974 to 2019 in the state of Uttar Pradesh. This includes assembly, general and local body elections. This dataset connects the contestants to the political offices to their family members within that universe.

We define dynast politicians as those who are preceded by family members who are currently active in politics or were active in the past. Family is defined as a set of individuals who are bound by proximate ties based on blood or marriage, and this definition includes father, mother, grand parents, siblings and in laws. Active in politics refers to holding an office in an elected body or being a candidate in elections. According to this definition, the head of family or the patriarch is considered to be a non-dynast in the year of entry. Precisely, because of the fact that he did not enjoy any advantage of having family members in politics at that point of time. But, ones a family member enter into the universe of politics, in later years patriarch will be considered as dynast along with the descendants.Additionally, both the first and second member should be entered to the system through assembly or general elections

We have come up with different definitions for dynasties that are specific to this contest. They are as follows.

For the purpose of this analysis we will be using the second definition.

0.1 Summary statistics

Entries from different levels

0.1.1 Local body

The dynasty dataset includes winners from local body elections for all the local body institutions except GP - Block Panchayats, Zilla Panchayats , Nagar Panchayts and Nagar Nigams from the year 1995.

Urban/Rural	Local body	Observations
Urban local body	Nagar Nigam	60
Urban local body	Nagar Palika Parishad	970
Urban locla body	Nagar Panchayat	2105
Rural local body	Zilla Panchayat	339
Rural local body	Block Panchayat	3932

0.1.2 AE - GE

This universe includes winners and runner-ups in the general and assembly elections from the year 1977 to 2019.

Total observations: 11550
AE observations :9650
AE unique observations :4603
GE observations :1900
GE unique observations :1022
Number of unique individuals: 5276
Number of unique families : 322

0.1.2.1 Maps

0.1.2.1.1 AC

## Reading layer `India_AC' from data source `D:\cpr\data\shape-file\maps-master\assembly-constituencies\India_AC.shp' using driver `ESRI Shapefile'
## Simple feature collection with 4182 features and 13 fields
## geometry type:  MULTIPOLYGON
## dimension:      XY
## bbox:           xmin: 68.09348 ymin: 8.076645 xmax: 97.4115 ymax: 37.07719
## geographic CRS: WGS 84

0.1.2.1.2 PC

## Reading layer `india_pc_2019' from data source `D:\cpr\data\shape-file\maps-master\parliamentary-constituencies\india_pc_2019.shp' using driver `ESRI Shapefile'
## Simple feature collection with 543 features and 5 fields
## geometry type:  MULTIPOLYGON
## dimension:      XY
## bbox:           xmin: 68.09348 ymin: 6.762522 xmax: 97.4115 ymax: 37.07761
## geographic CRS: WGS 84

The following section provides the year and election level wise break-up of the observations

0.1.2.2 obs. break-up

0.1.2.2.1 Assembly Elections

Year	Count
1974	804
1977	806
1980	806
1985	806
1989	806
1991	794
1993	800
1996	804
2002	806
2007	806
2012	806
2017	806

0.1.2.2.2 General Elections

Year	Count
1977	158
1980	158
1984	158
1989	158
1991	156
1996	158
1998	158
1999	158
2004	158
2009	160
2014	160
2019	160

0.1.3 Levels

Families are spread at multiple office levels. While majority them are present only at the assembly election level, there are a quite a few of them which is spanned across multiple level of office. The following table summarises that -

0.1.3.1 def 2

Linkages of families(Category 2)
level	count
AE	155
GE-AE	108
GE-AE-LB	23
AE-LB	22
GE	14

0.1.3.2 def 4

Linkages of families(Category 4)
level	count
LB	719
AE	155
GE-AE	108
AE-LB	103
GE-AE-LB	33
GE	14
GE-LB	6

0.2 Past elections

This chart depicts the proportion of dynast among the winners of assembly election since 1974.

0.3 Entry year

0.4 caste

0.5 AE GE election contest

There could four types of election contests:

Dynast wins against against a Dynast
Dynast wins against a Non-dynast
Non-dynast wins against another Non-dynast
Non-dynast wins against a dynast

First table shows count of the contests and the second one shows the proportion of contests. First part represents the winner in both the tables headers.

0.5.1 Count

election_id	fam v/s fam	fam v/s non-fam	non-fam v/s fam	non-fam v/s non-fam
AE1977	NA	7	4	392
AE1980	NA	11	5	387
AE1985	1	12	13	377
AE1989	2	19	16	366
AE1991	2	22	17	356
AE1993	1	28	17	354
AE1996	4	39	23	336
AE2002	15	45	28	315
AE2007	12	52	51	288
AE2012	23	67	47	266
AE2017	12	70	81	240
GE1977	1	2	3	73
GE1980	NA	4	3	72
GE1984	1	6	2	70
GE1989	NA	10	8	61
GE1991	1	7	6	64
GE1996	2	12	6	59
GE1998	5	8	10	56
GE1999	6	15	5	53
GE2004	6	19	8	46
GE2009	6	28	10	36
GE2014	6	17	20	37
GE2019	4	24	18	34

0.5.2 Percentage

election_id	fam v/s fam	fam v/s non-fam	non-fam v/s fam	non-fam v/s non-fam
AE1977	NA	0.02	0.01	0.97
AE1980	NA	0.03	0.01	0.96
AE1985	0.00	0.03	0.03	0.94
AE1989	0.00	0.05	0.04	0.91
AE1991	0.01	0.06	0.04	0.90
AE1993	0.00	0.07	0.04	0.88
AE1996	0.01	0.10	0.06	0.84
AE2002	0.04	0.11	0.07	0.78
AE2007	0.03	0.13	0.13	0.71
AE2012	0.06	0.17	0.12	0.66
AE2017	0.03	0.17	0.20	0.60
GE1977	0.01	0.03	0.04	0.92
GE1980	NA	0.05	0.04	0.91
GE1984	0.01	0.08	0.03	0.89
GE1989	NA	0.13	0.10	0.77
GE1991	0.01	0.09	0.08	0.82
GE1996	0.03	0.15	0.08	0.75
GE1998	0.06	0.10	0.13	0.71
GE1999	0.08	0.19	0.06	0.67
GE2004	0.08	0.24	0.10	0.58
GE2009	0.07	0.35	0.12	0.45
GE2014	0.07	0.21	0.25	0.46
GE2019	0.05	0.30	0.22	0.42

0.6 seats contested by dynasts

0.7 Election contested

## 
##    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10   11   12   13 
## 2495  925  459  265  170   97   66   37   13   11    2    3    2

## 
##    0    1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10 
## 1910 1637  544  242  129   43   23   10    4    2    1

0.8 Elections won

0.8.1 table -individuals

This table shows the count of the unique individuals with regards to the number of elections they have won

Break-up of unique individuals wrt to elections won
n_elections_won	n_individuals
0	2082
1	1881
2	665
3	327
4	177
5	74
6	35
7	13
8	13
9	6
10	2
15	1

0.8.2 treemap - individuals

0.8.3 Density map of N elections won by families

0.8.3.1 Both - contested and won

0.9 Elections contested

0.9.1 Table - individuals

This table shows the count of the unique individuals with regards to the number of elections they have contested .

Break-up of unique individuals wrt to elections contested
n_elections_contested	n_individuals
1	2753
2	1061
3	552
4	336
5	253
6	124
7	82
8	58
9	27
10	12
11	4
12	6
13	6
15	1
16	1

0.9.2 Density chart of election contested by families

0.10 Strike rate

0.11 Life span

0.11.1 family

0.11.1.1 1

Here life span is calculated by computing the difference in entry year of the family with the last appearance of a member from the same family. Life span is simply the longitudinal life of a family. This is calculated by simply computing the difference in the entry year of a family with the year in which the last member has contested. The following graph is a density chart of the the life span of the unique families in the dataset.

0.11.1.2 2

Life span in this context is the year difference between the election that the patriarch contested before the second member and the last election that contested by someone from the family.

0.11.2 Individuals won

0.11.3 Individual life span

life span in this context is the the year diffrence between the first and last election the candidate has appeared.

0.12 Experience

0.12.1 Family

This variable takes into year that ruled by a dynast ruler

0.12.2 non-families

0.13 Retention

This chart depicts the retention of candidates after each election year.

0.14 Land distribution

The dataset contains a variable named land which records the land owned by the candidate/family. The information is recorded in bhigas.

0.14.1 Families

This boxplot shows the difference the land owned by family and a non-family entity.

0.14.2 Political Experience

This boxplot shows the difference in the land ownership according to a candidate’s political experience. Political experience is the sum of term duration of every election that they have won.

0.15 Educational institutions

The data set has variable which record the candidate’s/ family’s ownership of school/college/both.

0.15.1 Families

This barplot depicts the difference in the ownership of educational institutions among family and non-family entities.

0.15.2 Political Experience

This depicts the ownership of the educational institutions with regards to political experience of the unique individuals.

0.15.3 caste

Depicts the ownership of educational institutions with regards to the caste of the unique candidate.

0.16 Industries

Finding this out - next update

The dataset records the information regarding the candidate’s family’s ownership of industries in 12 different categories. For the ease if analysis we clubbed them to 5 categories.

Current category	Old category
Petrol Pump	Petrol Pump

Others

3

4

5

0.16.1 Family

0.16.1.1 Average

Ownership of industries among families and non-families

Industry ownership
Politician’s identity	Average number of ownersip
Family	1.61
Non-family	0.67

0.16.1.2 Distribution

Industry distribution among families

0.16.2 rent thick

0.16.2.1 Average

Ownership of rent thick and non-rent thick industires with regards to the family type.

Politician’s identity	rent-type	Proportion
Family	non-rent-thick	0.41
Family	rent-thick	0.59
Non-family	non-rent-thick	0.71
Non-family	rent-thick	0.29

0.16.2.2 Distribution

Ownership of industries among families and non-families with regards to the industry category.

0.16.3 Political experience

Ownership of industries with regards to the candidate’s political experience

0.17 Political experience

0.17.1 Distribution - individuals

This tables shows the distribution of the unique individuals’ experience/

Experience Categories	Count
0	2145
1-5	1544
6-15	931
16+	247

0.17.2 Distribution - family

This table shows the distribution of the experience categories among the families and non-families.

Experience Categories	Non-Families	Families
0	2127	18
1-5	1499	45
6-15	800	131
16+	119	128

0.17.3 caste

This shows the caste composition of the candidates with regards to their experience.